Thanks to MK over at Popbytes for bringing this to our attention. Jessica Simpson recently appeared on the Today Show to promote her new album Public Affair, and she apparently did not take the doctor’s orders on not talking or singing–before the chorus of “With You“, her voice cracked like craaazyyy.

You’d better listen to Mr. Doctor next time Miss Simpson.

***

Bree Van De Kamp gets some finally needed release this season on Desperate Housewives–this year she finally gets head. Yes, you read that right. Her new beau, Orson, played by Sex and the City’s Kyle MacLachlan dives into that uptight suburban housewife carpet. Her response of course: “I’m a republican!”. The clip of the sex scene from an upcoming episode of the show somehow leaked to YouTube, and Disney subsequently had it pulled down. What is it with Kyle MacLachlan and weird sexual situations? (-cough- Showgirls -cough-)

I’m gonna need Housewives to start now

The clip in question has been removed, but I found another one that looks like it’s from Bree and Orson’s upcoming wedding.

***

So for those of you that don’t know, while the Oscar-winning Capote was being made, there was yet another Truman Capote biopic in the works but this one starts Tony Jones, Sandra Bullock, and Daniel Craig. A lot is being made of a kiss between Jones and Craig in the movie, and thanks to Towelroad, we’ve got a still from the scene, and a quote from Jones about the kiss:

“I had never dreamed I would kiss James Bond. It’s not something I would ever aspire to. Now that I’ve done it, I hope I’m the first of many. It was slightly abrasive, but ultimately rewarding. And neither of us are gay. We filmed the prison scene right at the end and I was aware it was going to be a pressurised situation, this very intense scene filmed in such an intimate space. I thought it was going to be the really gruelling part of the movie. But it was fantastic to work with Daniel because as an English actor there’s a kind of humour that goes with those scenes. You take it seriously but you also find a way to deal with it.”

There’s already been one movie made about Truman Capote which, as you know, earned Philip Seymour Hoffman an Oscar for best actor. But, what you may not know is that Sandra Bullock is also in a film about the illustrious writer’s life which was actually being made the same time as Capote.

At a press day for Warner Brother Pictures’ romantic drama The Lake House, which stars Bullock and Keanu Reeves, she talked a little about the difference between her version, titled Infamous, and Hoffman’s film.

“I love the fact that the studios didn’t say, ‘Oh, we’re nervous about this.’ It’s a great time to show cinematically and the levels to which that story could be told are so deep,” Bullock said.

“Anyone who knows any history about that time, the writers of Truman and all that stuff that went on, there’s so many points of view and what’s nice about both films is that they both took a strong point of view on a time. And what happened? What did happen? Was every word true? Did this situation really happen? Based on George Plympton’s book, it’s the recounting of his associates and friends and people he burned that remembered him, part of the literary community that are recounting that time. It’s beautifully done,” she continued.

As for following an actress who has already played Harper Lee so recently, she isn’t too worried about it.

“Catherine Keener is the greatest since sliced toast. We both did it and no one once thought, ‘Oh my God, we can’t do both of these.’ No one thought, ‘What is she doing?’ I’m sure none of the Trumans were thinking, ‘What is the other one doing?’ It’s a great story.”

Bullock must really have a passion right now for starring in films that are based on the lives of writers, because she is currently developing another movie which is about Grace Metalious. A housewife in the ’50s who lived in New Hampshire with her three kids, she shocked the nation with her scandalous novel “Peyton Place.”

The success of the book, which was partly based on the sex and scandals in the small town of Gilmanton, where she lived, instantly gave her notoriety and eventually ruined her life. The pressures of such triumphs caused her marriage to end, her children were teased and harassed and she received calls and letters. As a result, she died at age 39 from alcoholism.

“We’re still developing it. We’ve been developing it for a couple of years. We’re still working on it,” Bullock explained.

“There’s so many things that people don’t know and the media made up that aren’t truths. The research has been astounding… the situation is tragic. And it’s also inspiring. Again the tragedy sells more paper than actually the accomplishments and the overcoming of massive hurdles of that time. The accomplishments and all those things get overridden by ‘oh my God, she died so young.’ See that’s tragic. But, again that’s what sells rather than listing the accomplishments and heralding someone. We’re still working on it and we don’t want to put anything out until it’s just right.”

As for her co-star, Reeves isn’t quite sure what his next project is going to be, but Bullock had some advice for him when we asked about a Constantine sequel.

“I suggest you don’t do that,” she said sarcastically.

“What should I do?” asked Reeves.

Still bitter from doing Speed 2: Cruise Control and upset her pal didn’t warn her not to do the sequel, she shot back, “I don’t know, just as a friend I thought you shouldn’t do a sequel, I’d call you or tell you. I think in the next ‘Constantine‘ he gives up smoking. There’s a whole anti-smoking campaign,” Bullock laughed.

Reeves added, “It’s kind of in the air. Maybe. I’d love to, but I don’t know if the producers would want to do it… It’s a long story. We’ve got to figure it out.”

The “What Film Should Have Won The Oscar?” Poll has come to a close, and not surprisingly, Brokeback Mountain is the winner, with Crash coming in a distant second.

This is probably a preview for what will happen tomorrow when both films face off on DVD (‘Crash’ is being re-released as a 2-Disc Director’s Cut).

This poll marks the biggest voter turnout we’ve had since the launch of the site in December. (409 votes)

Here are the results:

Brokeback Mountain comes in first with 59% of the votes.

Crash is in second with 33%

Good Night, and Good Luck is a very distant third with 3% (14 Votes)

Munich is in fourth with 3% (13 Votes)

And Capote came in last with 1%

By Michael Wilmington
Chicago Tribune

When “Crash” took the best picture Oscar March 5, beating the heavy favorite “Brokeback Mountain” at the last minute, it was the one surprise in an evening woefully short of them.

Philip Seymour Hoffman, Reese Witherspoon, Ang Lee, Larry McMurtry and Diana Ossana, Wallace and Gromit, even “Crash” original screenplay writers Paul Haggis and Bobby Moresco – one by one the night’s long-predicted favorites kept rolling over their opponents as if the whole thing had been scripted.

That’s why that final “Whoa! Crash” from presenter Jack Nicholson was such a shock. In one wild moment, the whole evening turned around, ripping through the show’s complacency and probably spoiling a lot of instant think-pieces already half-composed about “Brokeback’s” gutsy reversal of America’s sexual-cultural mythos.

It surprised me, too. Up to that moment, I had a good string running on my own predictions — and “Brokeback” for best picture seemed a safe pick. So I wasn’t happy. It wasn’t because I, along with some other writers, regard “Crash” as unworthy or because I think Ang Lee’s melancholy movie about two gay cowboys was the victim of a sinister “Break Brokeback” conspiracy, revealing academy voters as hypocritical homophobes.

Great PR move

“Crash” probably won because more of the academy voters liked and admired it as a movie. They didn’t shun “Brokeback”; they gave it three key Oscars (best director, adapted screenplay and original score) and a strong place in academy history. But I would argue that the majority — and maybe it was a slim majority — honestly preferred “Crash.” In the end, it’s more likely that the voting majority thought “Brokeback” was a good, honorable film, but slower, less engrossing and less moving compared with the jazzy, multistranded, Altmanesque L.A.-contempo “Crash,” a movie about racism and crime in today’s Los Angeles with a big-name ensemble cast playing for peanuts, a tricky structure of interweaving stories and an overall L.A. atmosphere and feeling that struck many Angelenos as right-on. It’s a movie that, according to New York Daily News critic, Oscar expert and L.A. native Jack Mathews “played like gangbusters to people who lived in L.A.”

“Brokeback,” with a more realistic and impeccably literary screenplay, shot in a languorous style reminiscent of European art films, simply didn’t connect with the voters in the same way, but not because they are homophobic. A few may well be, just as some may have been offended by “Munich’s” take on terrorism, “Capote’s” gay protagonist or even the anti-McCarthyism of “Good Night, and Good Luck.” But not enough to matter. Certainly, this is not an industry you could reasonably accuse of widespread anti-liberalism and homophobia.

There are other good reasons “Crash” may have won. For one thing, “Crash’s” feisty little studio, Lionsgate, sent out a ton of DVDs, making sure it was seen. For another, there was a powerful third film in the race: “Capote.”

“Capote” was a movie with strong and stubborn support among critics and, I’ll bet, also among academy members. Like “Brokeback,” it was a picture with a gay protagonist, Hoffman as Truman Capote, whom we see during the writer’s Kansas adventure researching and writing “In Cold Blood.” Like “Brokeback,” it was highly literary in composition and, unlike “Crash,” not afflicted with some of those movie devices you call either cliches or mythic archetypes.

If “Capote” had not been in the race, the vast majority of its voters probably would have gone to “Brokeback,” rather than the other three films. So if you’re looking for a spoiler to “Brokeback’s” seemingly sure win, it makes more sense to pick “Capote” than “Crash.” (That doesn’t make for sexy instant analysis though.) And you could also lay some blame on the fact that all five of the nominees were serious film dramas tackling weighty or significant subjects, which meant that issues-minded voters could comfortably vote for any of them.

A fable

More of them were comfortable with “Crash.” But though that result offended critics who had attacked Paul Haggis’ movie for precisely those pesky “cliches,” we should remember, as Mathews points out, that “Crash” really isn’t meant to be taken literally. It’s a fable, a thriller, a polemic. (In his acceptance speech, Canadian immigrant Haggis made just that point, arguing that art isn’t necessarily a Shakespearean mirror held up to nature but also a Brechtian hammer to reshape society.)

The critics who trashed “Crash” were probably more partial to the literary-psychological modes of both “Brokeback” and “Capote.” They wanted the mirror and not the hammer. They couldn’t accept scenes such as the one where previously racist-seeming cop Matt Dillon tries to pull from a flipped-over soon-to-burn vehicle the same African-American woman (Thandie Newton) whom he molested during a roust the night before. I can see the critics’ point; compared with real life, it’s a thoroughly implausible scene. But it does play like gangbusters.

In any case, it makes little sense for liberal film critics to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory by trashing “Crash” and obsessing about “Brokeback’s” non-win. “Crash” is a fine, strong, very well-made movie about urgent contemporary issues, a film that genuinely entertains and moves people, especially Angeleno Oscar-voters. That’s a large part of why it won and why the result is actually a hopeful sign inside the industry — as a “Brokeback” win would also have been.

So, for that matter, would a win for “Capote,” “Munich” or “Good Night, and Good Luck.” It was that kind of year.

The cowboy love story “Brokeback Mountain” won best picture and its creator Ang Lee was named best director Saturday at the Independent Spirit Awards, which played out as a potential prelude to the Academy Awards.

Honoring the best in lower-budgeted, edgy filmmaking, the Spirit Awards honored many key contenders for Sunday’s Oscars, where “Brokeback Mountain” is the best-picture favorite.

“In a year when the Oscars have such an independent spirit, I really treasure this encouragement,” Lee said.

Top Oscar nominees “Capote,” “Crash” and “Transamerica” also earned two honors at the Spirit Awards, and virtually every winner in the ceremony’s top 12 categories also is competing at the Oscars.

“Capote” took the best-actor award for Philip Seymour Hoffman, who is the favorite to win the same prize at the Oscars for his role as author Truman Capote. The film also earned writer Dan Futterman the best-screenplay award.

Hoffman, who has won most other key best-actor honors this award season, cheered his fellow nominees: Jeff Daniels for “The Squid and the Whale,” Terrence Howard for “Hustle & Flow,” Heath Ledger for “Brokeback Mountain,” and David Strathairn for “Good Night, and Good Luck.”

“It’s ludicrous and I’ve been given enough,” Hoffman said. “And I want to share this so badly with all the nominees. I can’t tell you how fantastic these gentlemen are.”

Felicity Huffman, also an Oscar nominee, was named best actress for “Transamerica,” in which she delivers a gender-bending role as a man preparing for sex-change surgery. The film’s director, Duncan Tucker, received the award for best first screenplay.

The ensemble drama “Crash” won for best first feature by a director (Paul Haggis) and best supporting actor for Matt Dillon, who also has an Oscar nomination for his performance as a racist cop.

The supporting-actress prize went to Amy Adams for “Junebug,” who is nominated for an Oscar for her role as a sparkling Southern waif.

There usually is some overlap between the Oscars and Spirit Awards, such as last year’s “Sideways,” which dominated the independent prizes and was a contender in top Oscar categories.

But this year, the Oscar nominations mainly singled out the same dark, daring low-budgeted films that ruled the Spirit Awards.

“Brokeback Mountain” is the story of two sheepherders who carry on a torrid gay love affair that they conceal from their families for years.

It would be the first explicit gay theme film to win the best-picture Oscar.

“Mostly ‘Brokeback Mountain’ is about sheep,” said one of the film’s producers, Diana Ossana.

“So we want to thank our shepherd, Ang Lee,” said the film’s other producer, James Schamus.

Along with “Brokeback Mountain,” “Crash” and “Capote” are nominated for best picture at the Oscars. A fourth best-picture Oscar nominee, the Edward R. Murrow tale “Good Night, and Good Luck,” earned the cinematography honor at the Spirit Awards for Robert Elswit, who also is nominated at the Oscars.

The Spirit Awards’ other top two prizes also went to Oscar nominees: The Palestinian terrorist tale “Paradise Now” was picked as best foreign film, while “Enron: The Smartest Guys in the Room” was honored as best documentary.

Presented by the nonprofit group Film Independent, the Spirit Awards honor movies showcasing original, provocative subject matter shot on relatively modest budgets, with financing at least partly from outside the Hollywood studio system. Winners were chosen by the group’s 6,000 members, who include actors, directors, writers and other film professionals.

Playwright Tyler Perry, who turned his crazy-granny “Madea” character into a lucrative cottage industry, returned to the top of the box office on Sunday, exactly one year after stunning the industry with a No. 1 bow for his first film.

“Tyler Perry’s Madea’s Family Reunion,” which Perry wrote, directed and starred in, sold an estimated $30.3 million worth of tickets in its first three days since opening on Friday, distributor Lionsgate said.

The comedy-drama revolves around a pistol-toting matriarch, played by Perry, who beats and lectures her chaotic clan into submission. It was not screened in advance for critics, a tactic usually employed when a studio knows a movie will get harsh reviews but fans will turn out anyway.

While Perry, 35, is one of the best-known black playwrights in the United States, with sold-out shows in virtually every city for his “Madea” plays, he was barely a blip on the radar of mainstream movie audiences until last February when “Diary of a Mad Black Woman” opened at No. 1. The revenge comedy, budgeted at $5.5 million, ended its theatrical run with $50 million and was huge seller on home video. It was also released by Lionsgate, a unit of Lions Gate Entertainment Corp.

Last week’s champion, Walt Disney Co.’s fact-based survival saga “Eight Below,” slipped to No. 2 with $15.7 million, taking its 10-day total to $45.1 million.

NEW DUDS

Two other films opened in theaters, not that many people noticed. The canine cartoon “Doogal” played dead at No. 8 with $3.6 million, while the mob drama “Running Scared” was whacked at No. 9 with $3.1 million.

“Doogal” was released by the Weinstein Co., the privately held firm established by former Miramax Films co-chairmen Bob and Harvey Weinstein. “Running Scared” was released by New Line Cinema, a unit of Time Warner Inc.

Rounding out the top-five, Steve Martin’s comedy remake “The Pink Panther,” another former champ, was steady at No. 3 with $11.3 million in its third weekend. The film has earned $61 million to date.

The teen comedy “Date Movie” fell two places to No. 4 with $9.2 million, for a 10-day haul of $33.9 million. The computer-animated children’s book adaptation “Curious George” dipped one spot to No. 5 with $7 million and a three-week tally of $43.1 million.

“The Pink Panther” was released by Columbia Pictures, a unit of Sony Corp. while “Date Movie” was released by Twentieth Century Fox, a unit of News Corp. “Curious George” was released by Universal Pictures, a unit of NBC Universal, which is controlled by General Electric Co.

In a sign that Oscar buzz has largely been a bust for movie theater owners, three of the five best picture nominees earned a combined $3.4 million during the weekend, with leading contender “Brokeback Mountain” accounting for $2.3 million of that. To date, the gay-cowboy film has earned $75.4 million.

George Clooney’s newsroom drama “Good Night, and Good Luck” earned $600,000, while Steven Spielberg’s revenge thriller “Munich” pulled in $488,000. Their respective totals stand at $30.3 million and $46.1 million.

Of the two other nominees, the ensemble drama “Crash” is already out on home video, while official estimates for the Truman Capote saga “Capote” were not available. However, a rival studio estimated it made about $1 million, taking its total to about $23 million.

The Academy Awards will be handed out in Hollywood next Sunday.

“Brokeback Mountain,” already a hot favorite for next month’s Hollywood Oscars, was the big star of the night at the British Film Academy awards on Sunday, scooping four BAFTAs.

The gay cowboy love story won the coveted Best Film Award, Ang Lee was picked as Best Director, Jake Gyllenhaal was chosen as Best Supporting Actor and it also won the Best Adapted Screenplay statuette.

“I didn’t have a specific message. I wasn’t trying to push any political issues. We are dealing here with love,” Lee told Reuters Television before accepting his award.

Gyllenhaal, flabbergasted by his triumph, shook his head in astonishment and said: “Who would have thought this would happen.”

“It moved me like no other love story I have ever seen,” he said of the film for which he is also Oscar-nominated.

The film, which had taken Lee seven years to bring to the screen, faced tough competition in a strong year from “Capote,” “The Constant Gardener,” “Crash” and “Good Night, and Good Luck” to be picked as Best Film.

Philip Seymour Hoffman took home the Best Actor BAFTA for his mesmerising portrayal of writer Truman Capote in “Capote” and Reese Witherspoon was selected as Best Actress for her role in the Johnny Cash biopic “Walk The Line.”

Accepting his award, Hoffman thanked his girlfriend Mimi O’Donnell, saying “I want to say I love her and she looks really hot tonight.”

The Best Supporting Actress award went to British star Thandie Newton for her role in the low-budget racial drama “Crash.”

“This is the highest high ever,” she said afterwards. “I don’t expect it to get any higher.”

The British film industry had great hopes for the stylish political thriller “The Constant Gardener” which garnered 10 nominations but its stars Ralph Fiennes and Rachel Weisz went home empty-handed.

Another disappointed star was George Clooney who had been nominated four times in recognition of his directing, acting and writing skills in the McCarthy era drama “Good Night, and Good Luck” and the Middle East thriller “Syriana.”

“Wallace and Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit,” another in line for Oscar glory in Hollywood next month, was chosen as The Best British Film of the Year, much to the delight of Nick Park, creator of the two plasticine pals.

The BAFTAs were shifted in 2001 from April to February to fall between the Golden Globes and the Oscars with organizers hoping to capture some Hollywood glitter in the packed awards calendar.

But winning a top UK film industry award is certainly no guarantee of Oscar success.

Last year, Clint Eastwood’s boxing drama “Million Dollar Baby” swept the board at the Oscars but failed to score at the BAFTAs after distributors refused to send out copies of the film to voters amid fears of piracy.

I cannot even express the excitement that brews within me over next month’s Academy Awards. In 20 days, the Academy will hand out those golden statues that get those actors crying and screaming.

The fact that Jon Stewart, one of the funniest and may I add sexiest men in the world is hosting is the best icing on the cake anyone could ever ask for (though I’m hoping Whoopi returns someday).

I have a few people I’m rooting for, and I hope that doesn’t get in the way of my predictions too much, but if it does, oh well.

George Clooney’s got 3 nominations this year, but as he’s said himself, it’s very unlikely he’ll win in any of the categories he’s nominated in. It’s just a Brokeback year this year. George’s gift is in the nominations. The good news though, is that with the success of Syriana and Good Night, and Good Luck, George Clooney has finally torn down the barrier on his career that had him pegged as a “hunk”, a competent actor with a pretty face. As with Mel Gibson recently, Clooney has gained industry credibility, that leaves him open to future Oscar chances. But sorry George, it just ain’t your year.

This is a great year for the Best Actor category. Every actor in the category deserves a win, and that’s the kind of thing that makes the Academy Awards relevant–unlike other embarassing categories (See Best Actress).

With all of the said…without further ado, here are my predictions for who will win as well as my choices for who (as objectively as can be) should win.

Best Actor

Heath Ledger - Brokeback Mountain
Philip Seymour Hoffman - Capote
Terrence Howard - Hustle & Flow
David Strathairn - Good Night, and Good Luck
Joaquin Phoenix - Walk The Line

Will Win: Philip Seymour Hoffman. The only possible alternate choice is Heath Ledger who could squeeze out a win because of the Brokeback Mountain momentum. But more than likely, the Academy will award Hoffman’s subtle, quietly powerful performance in Capote. Not to mention the fact that the Academy, which is full of older men, tends to not like to award young, beautiful actors. Case in point: Leonardo DiCaprio, Jude Law. Joaquin was great in Walk The Line but he’s too overshadowed by the power of Brokeback and the caricature of Capote. Not to mention last year’s win for Jamie Foxx for playing a similar role in a similar movie.

Should Win: This is a VERY hard one, because each and every performance in this category is worthy. But if I factor in EVERYTHING, including each actor’s body of work and the difficulty of the characters, I’d have to say Philip Seymour Hoffman. He absolutely NAILED Truman Capote, and turned what could have been a mediocre film into something spectacular. I couldn’t take my eyes off of him the entire movie.

Best Actress

Felicity Huffman - Transamerica
Reese Witherspoon - Walk The Line
Judi Dench - Mrs. Henderson Presents
Keira Knightley - Pride & Prejudice
Charlize Theron - North Country

Will Win: This is a VERY tough one. The only two who have ANY chance of winning are Huffman and Witherspoon, but it’s honestly a huge toss up between those two. Given the Academy’s trend towards beautiful women and Oscars (the trend is the opposite in the Best Actress category), I would be inclined to say Reese Witherspoon. But I wouldn’t completely rule out Felicity Huffman. Reese has the advantage that her film did more than 10 times better at the box office than Felicity’s but Felicity’s performance was more challenging, and the Academy loves gender bending roles (See Hilary Swank in Boys Don’t Cry).

Should Win: Felicity Huffman I’m sorry Reese, you’re great and all in Walk The Line–particularly the scene where Joaquin’s on the bed all coked out and you’re giving him one of those friendly motiviational speeches and you get all teary eyed–(I got a little misty), and I loved you in Legally Blonde, but something tells me the work you put into Mrs. Carter Cash pales in comparison to Felicity Huffman’s brilliant take on a pre-op transexual connecting with her estranged son. You just don’t get better acting than this people. Reese has many years and a great career ahead of her. Something tells me Felicity’s chances of being nominated again aren’t too great. Maybe the fact that she’s married to Bill Macy’ll help her get some votes?

Best Supporting Actor

Matt Dillon - Crash
George Clooney - Syriana
Jake Gyllenhaal - Brokeback Mountain
Paul Giamatti - Cinderella Man
William Hurt - A History of Violence

Will Win: It’s honestly a toss up between Matt Dillon and Paul Giamatti. In an ideal world, Matt Dillon would win hands down. His performance in Crash was fresh, real, honest, and it was a standout performance in a film with an excellent ensemble. But there’s a problem. Paul Giamatti should have nominated for Sideways last year, and was for whatever reason snubbed. The Academy likes to give Oscars to people after the fact even if the performance isn’t as good as the one they should have won for (See Denzel Washington in Training Day/Malcolm X). Though effective, Giamatti’s performance in Cinderella Man is not an Oscar winning one, in fact if there was a nomination in this movie it should have been for the excellent Russell Crowe, who played vulnerability like no one can in Cinderella Man–he had me balling. I know what you’re wondering. Why am I not considering Jake Gyllenhaal for the monster of a movie Brokeback Mountain. I refer back to my commentary for the Best Actor category. Too young, too pretty. We’ll see how it goes down next month, but I’m hoping the Academy does the right thing.

Should Win: Duh. Matt Dillon. Great script, great movie, great performance. My other choice would be Jake Gyllenhaal (who I think, as an actor is ridiculously underrated. Like other actors before him, his beauty is unfortunately overshadowing his immense talent). The scene where Jack finally stands up to his father-in-law on Thanksgiving is one of my favorites in the film–Gyllenhaal is a winner in ths movie. But I think Jake has many more brilliant performances ahead of him. Dillon should take this one.

Best Supporting Actress

Frances McDormand - North Country
Michelle Williams - Brokeback Mountain
Catherine Keener - Capote
Rachel Weisz - The Constant Gardener
Amy Adams - Junebug

Will Win: Rachel Weisz. She’s had the momentum building up to the awards for quite a while now, (See Golden Globes and SAG Awards) and she makes such a bold impact even for being killed in the first two minutes that I think she’ll take it home. I’d love to see Frances McDormand win for her touching performance in North Country, but the problem simply is that no one saw that damn movie. Why, I’m not sure. It was a great movie with some great performances. Catherine Keener could pop out a win for her role in Capote, though unlikely, and Michelle Williams could sneak up with her misery-stricken Alma in Brokeback Mountain, but I think the voters too keenly remember her days at the Creek.

Should Win: Michelle Williams. As the great Annie Proulx said, Michelle nailed Alma’s “misery voice” and already had me tearing up halfway through the movie at her reaction to seeing Jack and Ennis embrace. She won’t win because there are some more experienced and respected actors in her category, but she should.

Best Director

Ang Lee - Brokeback Mountain
George Clooney - Good Night, and Good Luck
Paul Haggis - Crash
Steven Spielberg - Munich
Bennett Miller - Capote

Will Win: Ang Lee. Without a doubt. Sorry, George, this one is in the bag. All I can say is that I’m glad Spielberg came out with Munich, because the Academy nominates him for anything, and if War of the Worlds had been nominated for an Oscar I would have cut off my penis and stabbed in a vagina with a plastic spoon.

Should Win: Ang Lee. Brokeback is a beautiful film and Ang has conjured some magical performances out of these promising young actors. Bravo, Ang. Bravo. The rest of the nominees all made great movies, but the power of Brokeback overtakes all.

Best Picture

Brokeback Mountain
Crash
Capote
Good Night, and Good Luck
Munich

Will Win: Need I even? B-R-O-K-E-B-A-C-K. No doubt in my mind.

Should Win: As I said before, all great films. But Brokeback is a hell of a film with a weeper of an ending. There wasn’t a dry eye in the house. Granted, the first time I saw it, it was in Chelsea so the audience was nothing but gay men and their fag hags, but nonetheless. Crash is one of my favorite films of all time, and Good Night, and Good Luck was one of the best made movies I’ve seen in a REALLY long time, but you gotta give it to Ang Lee. You just gotta.

Snubs?

Toni Collete - In Her Shoes. This was such a great movie with 3 great performances. Shirley Maclaine was nominated for a Golden Globe (and should have won, by the way) but the real standout performance of the movie was from the brilliantly underrated Toni Collette.

Anne Hathaway - Brokeback Mountain. I’m sorry, but her performance was my favorite. I know, a lot of people can’t get past the hair, but that little smirk she gives when Jack stands up to her father, and that scene with her and Heath at the end–don’t even get me crying up in here. I’m not saying she would or should have won, but she should have at least been nominated.

Russell Crowe - Cinderella Man. Sorry Russell, this was just a really tough year for leading actors. So many great performances to choose from–only five slots. But you were great.

Terrence Howard - Crash. He probably didn’t get nominated because his performance here was overshadowed by his performance in Hustle & Flow, but a snub nonetheless.

Sandra Bullock - Crash. I think Sandra Bullock’s talents are ridiculously underrated. Yes, she’s pretty. Yes, she’s funny. Yes, she’s shtick. Yes, she usually does big budget romantic comedies. But I’ve never disliked a performance of hers (except maybe Speed 2 which I’ll try to forgive her for), and in Crash, she really pulls out all the stops. That scene in the house where she unloads on Brendan Fraser after they’re robbed at gunpoint is one of the best of the film. The best part of it though, is the classy walk off afterwards.

Cinderella Man - I still don’t quite get why no one went to see this. It’s an all-American film, it stars Russell Crowe and Renee Zelweger, two of Hollywood’s biggest stars, and it’s a Ron Howard flick. Hmm…maybe too close to Million Dollar Baby.

The Constant Gardener - Great movie that should probably be in Munich’s place. Damn that Spielberg.

“Crash,” a racial drama that hinges on unexpected turns of events, scored a major upset on Sunday over Oscar favorite “Brokeback Mountain” when it won the ensemble cast award from the Screen Actors Guild.

For weeks, “Brokeback” had been collecting one film award after another, draining any suspense out of the race for the March 5 Academy Awards.

Its latest award came on Saturday night when its director Ang Lee won best director’s award from the Directors Guild of America, often an Oscar barometer.

But “Brokeback” may have hit a bump in the road with the unexpected victory for the cast of “Crash,” an ensemble drama of 36 hours in Los Angeles when a minor traffic accident triggers a series of racial confrontations that ends in murder.

The film has more than 70 actors, including many A-listers who worked for scale, including Sandra Bullock and Don Cheadle.

One reason for its success at SAG may be that its distributor, Lionsgate, sent members of the Screen Actors Guild DVDs of the film, which had been released in May and pretty well forgotten as the awards season started.

Its director and co-writer, Paul Haggis, said on Saturday that he thought he was just a lucky man to be nominated for anything and said making the film was a touch-and-go effort in which the producers frequently ran out of money and had to use Haggis’ own home for rehearsals.

Philip Seymour Hoffman was named best actor for his role as writer Truman Capote in “Capote” and Reese Witherspoon best actress for her role as June Carter Cash in the Johnny Cash biography “Walk the Line.”

“Sometimes I just really can’t shake the feeling that I am really just a little girl from Tennessee,” Witherspoon said.

The prizes bolster both Hoffman’s and Witherspoon’s chances of winning an Oscar when the Academy Awards are presented in March.

Paul Giamatti, an often ignored character actor, won the best supporting actor award for his role as the manager in “Cinderella Man,” about the life of Depression-era boxer James J. Braddock.

British actress Rachel Weisz won best supporting actress for her role as the doomed activist wife of a British diplomat in “The Constant Gardener,” a film based on a thriller by spy novelist John Le Carre.

ABC’s hit series “Lost” and “Desperate Housewives” won top acting honors for television.

The “Lost” cast won the best ensemble performance award for a dramatic television series while “Desperate Housewives” received the ensemble award for best comedy series.

It was the first nomination and win for “Lost,” a castaway thriller that has helped reinvigorate ABC’s prime-time schedule.

S. Epatha Merkerson won the award for best actress in a television movie for her performance in “Lackawanna Blues,” and had the audience erupting in laughter and applause when she thanked her divorce lawyer.

Felicity Huffman was named best actress in a comedy series for her work as one of the “Desperate Housewives.”

Sandra Oh was named best actress in a television drama for her work as a fledgling doctor in “Grey’s Anatomy” on ABC while Kiefer Sutherland was named best actor in a dramatic series for his work as a U.S. agent out to foil terrorist plots in “24″ on Fox.

Breathless and in tears, Oh, who also won a Golden Globe for her role, thanked her fellow Asian American actors. She said: “I share this with you … be encouraged and keep shining.”

Sean Hayes, named best actor for his role in the gay-themed NBC comedy “Will & Grace,” joked about the publicity around Ang Lee’s “Brokeback Mountain” as he accepted his award.

“First of all, I would like to thank Ang Lee for taking a chance on me,” he said. “I know everyone in Hollywood knows it’s such a risk to play a gay character.”

“Brokeback” has won major craft guild awards from Hollywood producers and directors and a victory at SAG for best ensemble cast — the top award given by actors — would have made it virtually unbeatable at the Academy Awards.

Not everyone is comfortable with the film, whose theme is a forbidden romance between two cowboys.

President George W. Bush ducked a question last week on whether he planned to see the film, and no movie whose theme is a gay romance has won a best-picture Oscar, the symbol of mainstream success.

Oscar nominations will be announced on Tuesday.