I cannot even express the excitement that brews within me over next month’s Academy Awards. In 20 days, the Academy will hand out those golden statues that get those actors crying and screaming.
The fact that Jon Stewart, one of the funniest and may I add sexiest men in the world is hosting is the best icing on the cake anyone could ever ask for (though I’m hoping Whoopi returns someday).
I have a few people I’m rooting for, and I hope that doesn’t get in the way of my predictions too much, but if it does, oh well.
George Clooney’s got 3 nominations this year, but as he’s said himself, it’s very unlikely he’ll win in any of the categories he’s nominated in. It’s just a Brokeback year this year. George’s gift is in the nominations. The good news though, is that with the success of Syriana and Good Night, and Good Luck, George Clooney has finally torn down the barrier on his career that had him pegged as a “hunk”, a competent actor with a pretty face. As with Mel Gibson recently, Clooney has gained industry credibility, that leaves him open to future Oscar chances. But sorry George, it just ain’t your year.
This is a great year for the Best Actor category. Every actor in the category deserves a win, and that’s the kind of thing that makes the Academy Awards relevant–unlike other embarassing categories (See Best Actress).
With all of the said…without further ado, here are my predictions for who will win as well as my choices for who (as objectively as can be) should win.
Best Actor
Heath Ledger - Brokeback Mountain
Philip Seymour Hoffman - Capote
Terrence Howard - Hustle & Flow
David Strathairn - Good Night, and Good Luck
Joaquin Phoenix - Walk The Line
Will Win: Philip Seymour Hoffman. The only possible alternate choice is Heath Ledger who could squeeze out a win because of the Brokeback Mountain momentum. But more than likely, the Academy will award Hoffman’s subtle, quietly powerful performance in Capote. Not to mention the fact that the Academy, which is full of older men, tends to not like to award young, beautiful actors. Case in point: Leonardo DiCaprio, Jude Law. Joaquin was great in Walk The Line but he’s too overshadowed by the power of Brokeback and the caricature of Capote. Not to mention last year’s win for Jamie Foxx for playing a similar role in a similar movie.
Should Win: This is a VERY hard one, because each and every performance in this category is worthy. But if I factor in EVERYTHING, including each actor’s body of work and the difficulty of the characters, I’d have to say Philip Seymour Hoffman. He absolutely NAILED Truman Capote, and turned what could have been a mediocre film into something spectacular. I couldn’t take my eyes off of him the entire movie.
Best Actress
Felicity Huffman - Transamerica
Reese Witherspoon - Walk The Line
Judi Dench - Mrs. Henderson Presents
Keira Knightley - Pride & Prejudice
Charlize Theron - North Country
Will Win: This is a VERY tough one. The only two who have ANY chance of winning are Huffman and Witherspoon, but it’s honestly a huge toss up between those two. Given the Academy’s trend towards beautiful women and Oscars (the trend is the opposite in the Best Actress category), I would be inclined to say Reese Witherspoon. But I wouldn’t completely rule out Felicity Huffman. Reese has the advantage that her film did more than 10 times better at the box office than Felicity’s but Felicity’s performance was more challenging, and the Academy loves gender bending roles (See Hilary Swank in Boys Don’t Cry).
Should Win: Felicity Huffman I’m sorry Reese, you’re great and all in Walk The Line–particularly the scene where Joaquin’s on the bed all coked out and you’re giving him one of those friendly motiviational speeches and you get all teary eyed–(I got a little misty), and I loved you in Legally Blonde, but something tells me the work you put into Mrs. Carter Cash pales in comparison to Felicity Huffman’s brilliant take on a pre-op transexual connecting with her estranged son. You just don’t get better acting than this people. Reese has many years and a great career ahead of her. Something tells me Felicity’s chances of being nominated again aren’t too great. Maybe the fact that she’s married to Bill Macy’ll help her get some votes?
Best Supporting Actor
Matt Dillon - Crash
George Clooney - Syriana
Jake Gyllenhaal - Brokeback Mountain
Paul Giamatti - Cinderella Man
William Hurt - A History of Violence
Will Win: It’s honestly a toss up between Matt Dillon and Paul Giamatti. In an ideal world, Matt Dillon would win hands down. His performance in Crash was fresh, real, honest, and it was a standout performance in a film with an excellent ensemble. But there’s a problem. Paul Giamatti should have nominated for Sideways last year, and was for whatever reason snubbed. The Academy likes to give Oscars to people after the fact even if the performance isn’t as good as the one they should have won for (See Denzel Washington in Training Day/Malcolm X). Though effective, Giamatti’s performance in Cinderella Man is not an Oscar winning one, in fact if there was a nomination in this movie it should have been for the excellent Russell Crowe, who played vulnerability like no one can in Cinderella Man–he had me balling. I know what you’re wondering. Why am I not considering Jake Gyllenhaal for the monster of a movie Brokeback Mountain. I refer back to my commentary for the Best Actor category. Too young, too pretty. We’ll see how it goes down next month, but I’m hoping the Academy does the right thing.
Should Win: Duh. Matt Dillon. Great script, great movie, great performance. My other choice would be Jake Gyllenhaal (who I think, as an actor is ridiculously underrated. Like other actors before him, his beauty is unfortunately overshadowing his immense talent). The scene where Jack finally stands up to his father-in-law on Thanksgiving is one of my favorites in the film–Gyllenhaal is a winner in ths movie. But I think Jake has many more brilliant performances ahead of him. Dillon should take this one.
Best Supporting Actress
Frances McDormand - North Country
Michelle Williams - Brokeback Mountain
Catherine Keener - Capote
Rachel Weisz - The Constant Gardener
Amy Adams - Junebug
Will Win: Rachel Weisz. She’s had the momentum building up to the awards for quite a while now, (See Golden Globes and SAG Awards) and she makes such a bold impact even for being killed in the first two minutes that I think she’ll take it home. I’d love to see Frances McDormand win for her touching performance in North Country, but the problem simply is that no one saw that damn movie. Why, I’m not sure. It was a great movie with some great performances. Catherine Keener could pop out a win for her role in Capote, though unlikely, and Michelle Williams could sneak up with her misery-stricken Alma in Brokeback Mountain, but I think the voters too keenly remember her days at the Creek.
Should Win: Michelle Williams. As the great Annie Proulx said, Michelle nailed Alma’s “misery voice” and already had me tearing up halfway through the movie at her reaction to seeing Jack and Ennis embrace. She won’t win because there are some more experienced and respected actors in her category, but she should.
Best Director
Ang Lee - Brokeback Mountain
George Clooney - Good Night, and Good Luck
Paul Haggis - Crash
Steven Spielberg - Munich
Bennett Miller - Capote
Will Win: Ang Lee. Without a doubt. Sorry, George, this one is in the bag. All I can say is that I’m glad Spielberg came out with Munich, because the Academy nominates him for anything, and if War of the Worlds had been nominated for an Oscar I would have cut off my penis and stabbed in a vagina with a plastic spoon.
Should Win: Ang Lee. Brokeback is a beautiful film and Ang has conjured some magical performances out of these promising young actors. Bravo, Ang. Bravo. The rest of the nominees all made great movies, but the power of Brokeback overtakes all.
Best Picture
Brokeback Mountain
Crash
Capote
Good Night, and Good Luck
Munich
Will Win: Need I even? B-R-O-K-E-B-A-C-K. No doubt in my mind.
Should Win: As I said before, all great films. But Brokeback is a hell of a film with a weeper of an ending. There wasn’t a dry eye in the house. Granted, the first time I saw it, it was in Chelsea so the audience was nothing but gay men and their fag hags, but nonetheless. Crash is one of my favorite films of all time, and Good Night, and Good Luck was one of the best made movies I’ve seen in a REALLY long time, but you gotta give it to Ang Lee. You just gotta.
Snubs?
Toni Collete - In Her Shoes. This was such a great movie with 3 great performances. Shirley Maclaine was nominated for a Golden Globe (and should have won, by the way) but the real standout performance of the movie was from the brilliantly underrated Toni Collette.
Anne Hathaway - Brokeback Mountain. I’m sorry, but her performance was my favorite. I know, a lot of people can’t get past the hair, but that little smirk she gives when Jack stands up to her father, and that scene with her and Heath at the end–don’t even get me crying up in here. I’m not saying she would or should have won, but she should have at least been nominated.
Russell Crowe - Cinderella Man. Sorry Russell, this was just a really tough year for leading actors. So many great performances to choose from–only five slots. But you were great.
Terrence Howard - Crash. He probably didn’t get nominated because his performance here was overshadowed by his performance in Hustle & Flow, but a snub nonetheless.
Sandra Bullock - Crash. I think Sandra Bullock’s talents are ridiculously underrated. Yes, she’s pretty. Yes, she’s funny. Yes, she’s shtick. Yes, she usually does big budget romantic comedies. But I’ve never disliked a performance of hers (except maybe Speed 2 which I’ll try to forgive her for), and in Crash, she really pulls out all the stops. That scene in the house where she unloads on Brendan Fraser after they’re robbed at gunpoint is one of the best of the film. The best part of it though, is the classy walk off afterwards.
Cinderella Man - I still don’t quite get why no one went to see this. It’s an all-American film, it stars Russell Crowe and Renee Zelweger, two of Hollywood’s biggest stars, and it’s a Ron Howard flick. Hmm…maybe too close to Million Dollar Baby.
The Constant Gardener - Great movie that should probably be in Munich’s place. Damn that Spielberg.
Comedy Central funny men Stephen Colbert and my baby daddy Jon Stewart are on this month’s cover of Rolling Stone magazine, and of course 
Playwright Tyler Perry, who turned his crazy-granny “Madea” character into a lucrative cottage industry, returned to the top of the box office on Sunday, exactly one year after stunning the industry with a No. 1 bow for his first film.
